USA: Who will win the presidency? Polls-plus forecast – By Nate Silver

USA: Who will win the presidency? Polls-plus forecast

What polls, the economy and historical data tell us about Nov. 8

  • How the odds have changed 

    trump

    Trump vs Clinton

  • Who’s ahead in each state and by how much

Our win probabilities come from simulating the election 20,000 times, which produces a distribution of possible outcomes for each state. Here are the expected margins of victory. The closer the dot is to the center line, the tighter the race. And the wider the bar, the less certain the model is about the outcome.

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Comments

  • Clyde Duncan  On July 1, 2016 at 3:56 pm

    Did Y’all See This One About Hillary Clinton??

    Jimmy Kimmel shows how some people will fall for any ridiculous lie about Hillary
    By Walter Einenkel – Daily Kos

    The way that propaganda works is that once people develop a certain perception of something, it is very hard to disabuse people of that opinion.

    A case in point has played out over the primaries this season with Hillary Clinton.

    The general belief by many is that Hillary Clinton is a manipulative, cynical veteran of politics who is interested in her own power. Depending on what side of the political spectrum you fall on this perception, while based in many good bits of evidence, it’s seemingly exaggerated when you compare Clinton to virtually every single liberal moderate politician in America.

    Bernie and Hillary voted on the same things 93 percent of the time. We don’t need to have a pie fight about that. That’s a fact. Once again, I’ll note that I voted for Bernie Sanders in the primary and that too is a fact.

    Jimmy Kimmel Live took on that perception in a piece that they occasionally do called “Lie Witness News.” The premise is that they ask people about something in the news, in this case the recent release of more (mostly) unremarkable personal email server emails from Clinton.

    The humour comes in that they ask people, while leading those people with more and more outrageous “LIES” about what was revealed in the news.

    In every case, the people being interviewed lie by saying they heard, or read or know, about these “facts.” In every case, they say things like “it doesn’t surprise me,” and “I can believe it.”

    The point in the end is that whether or not Hillary Clinton has done anything wrong, or the degree to which she has done things wrong, matters not at all to someone who is ready to apply this general brush of corruption and ill intent to her.

    It’s also funny.

  • Clyde Duncan  On July 1, 2016 at 4:14 pm

    About the article above and the 80-percent Shot ….

    Nate: I’m sort of annoyed by it being 80 percent, because I feel like that’s the number people most misinterpret. When you say 80 percent, people take that to mean “really, really certain.” It’s not, particularly.

    David: I liked your ballgame analogy in the article you wrote to accompany the forecast. Teams come back from 20-percent-win situations frequently. In fact, about 20 percent of the time!

    Nate: Absolutely amazing how that works!

    Clare: You’re annoyed that it’s a high number because people are going to glom onto that and think it holds for the whole election? Not realizing that this is where things stand as of June 29 and that it’ll change as things go on and polls come in?

    Nate: It can change, sure. But let’s be clear — 80 percent is the forecast Clinton has to win on Nov. 8. That’s our best estimate of her chances, accounting for the uncertainty between now and then, based on the historical accuracy of presidential polling. If the election were held today instead, she’d be a safer bet still.

    The polls can change a lot between now and Nov. 8. And they probably will. But there’s a chance those changes benefit Clinton, and not Donald Trump. And since she’s up by about 7 points now, there’s the chance they help Trump … but not enough to allow him to win.

    And that’s the thing. Of the 80 percent of the time Clinton wins — PLENTY of those times are going to involve her sweating. Either because Trump makes it very close at the end or because there are some periods in which things look very tight along the way, as they did for Obama against McCain in 2008 and against Romney in 2012.

    Just so you understand – Hillary Clinton has NOT won, as yet ….

    http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/an-80-percent-shot-doesnt-mean-clinton-is-a-sure-thing/?ex_cid=2016-forecast

    • De castro  On July 2, 2016 at 2:31 am

      Fast forward 2017
      USA Hilary
      UK Teresa
      EU Angela

      Russia PUTIN
      India Modi
      China Li ?

      A balanced world ?

      Lord/Lady rulers !

  • Clyde Duncan  On July 2, 2016 at 2:28 am

    President Obama in Ottawa, Canada – 29 June 2016:

  • Wycliffe Thomas  On July 4, 2016 at 2:18 pm

    With all that is going around Hillary Clinton, I still have her to win the President by a large majority. If this happens, it would be the first woman to be President of the USA.

    • De castro  On July 4, 2016 at 3:07 pm

      It is sad that the American voters
      only have a choice of two candidates
      Hilary aka broom rider (witch)
      Or
      Trump aka lunatic (Maverick)
      Party Politricks

      UK will soon have new leaders and hopefully new PM will be a woman.
      Our world will be safer and hopefully
      one of peace and love not WAR.
      Am optimistic !
      Lord kamtan

      • De castro  On July 4, 2016 at 4:01 pm

        You read it here first….

        Andrea Leadsom

        May be next Conservative party
        leader and next PM of UK.

        Not long before we know !

        Lord kamtan UKPLC

  • Emmanuel Music And Film Entertainment  On August 1, 2016 at 5:32 pm

    In the 2016 election. If I’m not mistaken; but when i was watching the news and viewers out their that’s is reading this post please correct me but from my understanding they said Hilary Clinton would win the 2016 election. My opinion is I’m just going to sit back and see what she is going to do. That is another thing we as voters who either supporting the Republicans or Democrats have to look out for. Because the Presidents tend to change when they get in office. Everyone just has to be be prepared.

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