USA: Who will win the presidency? Polls-plus forecast
What polls, the economy and historical data tell us about Nov. 8
- How the odds have changed
- Who’s ahead in each state and by how much
Our win probabilities come from simulating the election 20,000 times, which produces a distribution of possible outcomes for each state. Here are the expected margins of victory. The closer the dot is to the center line, the tighter the race. And the wider the bar, the less certain the model is about the outcome.
- It’s all about the 538 Electoral College votes
Who’s winning the popular vote
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast.
- Read more: http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
A User’s Guide To FiveThirtyEight’s 2016 General Election Forecast Read more …… http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-users-guide-to-fivethirtyeights-2016-general-election-forecast/