The ethnic compartmentalization of Guyana’s population has been published. [The report is at the end of this article.]
The outlay is not only interesting but deeply intriguing. The very first thing readers must and should know – the numbers are not equivalent to the voting age. For example, East Indians are just under 80,000 more than African Guyanese. But that doesn’t mean there are 80,000 more Indian voters than African voters. It is definite that when you break down the age groups, there aren’t 80,000 more Indian voters than African voters.
The rising group in Guyana’s demography which the 2012 census revealed is the mixed race category. When the PPP’s Stalinist hierarchy analyzes the statistics, one wonders if there isn’t going to be cardiac arrest. The mixed race compartment in the electoral arena normally does not vote in large numbers for the PPP. The growing section along with the mixed race category is the Amerindians. A simple assessment should go like this; for the PPP to win a majority it has to collect the totality of Indian ballots with the Amerindians or the mixed race, or both, sending it over the 50 percent mark.
The problem with the PPP is that Amerindians normally vote for their patrons. There is nothing condescending about this statement. It has been the behavioral pattern in the Amerindian world. If Minister Jones provides the village with resources to enable development, the village will vote for Minister Jones when he becomes a candidate.
The mixed race and Africans will not choose the PPP. And there is at least an eight percent figure of the Indian population that would frown on voting for the likes of Clement Rohee, Roger Luncheon, Gail Teixeira, Donald Ramotar and Bharrat Jagdeo. Make no mistake; those are the personalities that will lead the PPP into the 2020 general elections.
If the PPP is going to win it has to go into one direction only. That pathway could bring it that eight percent figure of Indian votes and a share of mixed race ballots. The PPP has to transform itself into a modern, democratic, multi-racial party with clean leaders who did not participate in the thirteen-year rampage of Jagdeo and Ramotar.
These leaders have to move away from the sordid legacies of Jagdeo and Ramotar, apologize for mistakes made, and openly elect its hierarchy through a process of membership vote. I don’t think that will happen, and my prediction is that unless those changes come, then the PPP will lose in 2020. Civilizing the Stalinist mind that is congenitally autocratic is beyond the capacity of the greatest philosopher. Civilizing the Philistine mind is beyond the ability of the greatest psychologist.
We come now to the PNC. I say PNC because in 2020, the PNC will enter the race as APNU, but there will no longer be the WPA and those paper organizations that make up APNU. For symbolic reasons, the PNC will retain the acronym, APNU. The 2012 census shows that the African part of Region Four’s population is 40 percent. If every African in Region Four votes for the PNC, it will not win. Since there is no significant Amerindian population in Region Four, the PNC will need either the Indian voter or mixed race support to win Region Four.
Transferring the Region Four scenario to the general country, for the PNC to win in 2020, it will need all the African ballots and mixed race and Amerindian votes. Is this possible? I doubt it.
First, let’s get out of the way the Indian thing. Indians will not vote for the PNC in 2020, despite what is going to be a nice, democratic phase of Granger’s performance. The mixed race group is not electorally loyal and regimented as Indians and Africans. If the Granger Government does insensitive, heartless and egregious things, I do not think the mixed race voters will be as eager to return the PNC to office.
And if all Amerindian votes go to the PNC together with all the African votes, it will not be strong enough to take the PNC over the 50 percent mark. Also the census reveals that Africans are not the majority any longer in Region 10. What the 2012 census indicates is that the PNC has to be performing superbly with strong democratic instincts if it is going to win the 2020 poll.
Finally, the AFC. If the AFC is going to bring anything to a Coalition victory in 2020, it needs to take a look at the 2012 census statistics for Regions Three, Five and Six. Can the AFC still secure the Indian embrace in those regions?
Guyana Census 2012 highlights decline in main ethnic populations
The Bureau of Statistics announced, on July 18, its publications of Compendiums One and Two further detailing the findings of the 2012 Census. [read more]