President Trump’s Policies and the Caribbean – by Sir Ronald Sanders

President Trump’s Policies and the Caribbean

– by Sir Ronald Sanders – Kaieteur News

Sir Ronald Sanders

Sir Ronald Sanders

President of the United States of America, Donald Trump, is systematically implementing the pledges he made during the Presidential election campaign.   Those who argued that limitations on Presidential power and the restraining hands of Cabinet and Congress, would cause many, if not all, of the President’s promises to fall by the wayside, are now becoming convinced of his determination.

He had re-enforced that determination in his Inauguration speech when he told the world, “From this moment on, it’s going to be America First”.     

And he spelt out the detail in clear terms by saying, “Every decision on trade, on taxes, on immigration, on foreign affairs, will be made to benefit American workers and American families. We must protect our borders from the ravages of other countries making our products, stealing our companies, and destroying our jobs”.  “Protection”, he said, “will lead to great prosperity and strength”.

As I pointed out in my last commentary, the 14 independent Caribbean Community (CARICOM) countries have no need to fear on trade in goods with the USA.  America has consistently enjoyed a balance of trade surplus with CARICOM, reaching US$4.17 billion in 2015, and likely to have been higher in 2016.  On this score, President Trump can have no quarrel with the Caribbean.

We should be clear.  Mr. Trump is the elected President of the USA, according to the country’s laws.  He is, therefore, entitled to implement the policies on which he campaigned, and in support of which he was elected.

However, there are other policies that President Trump is pursuing that could affect the Caribbean adversely and these require urgent attention by CARICOM governments and active engagement with the USA government. Below, I discuss some of these policies and their implications for the region.

CLIMATE CHANGE AND SEA LEVEL RISE: President Trump has abandoned the previous administration’s stance on global Climate Change efforts.  Evidence of this are: (a) his public statements during the Presidential election campaign; (b) his nomination of Scott Pruitt, a long-time foe of the EPA who has led 14 lawsuits against it, as the agency’s administrator; and (c) his instruction to the Environmental Protection Agency to remove the climate change page from its website.

The medium and long term consequences for Caribbean countries are grave.  Global warming is already at 1.89 degrees Celsius over pre-industrial levels.  If there is no massive reduction in carbon emissions by the USA – (which there will clearly NOT be now), the world will quickly reach 2 degrees Celsius, at which point sea levels will rise, eroding the coastal area of islands and mainland territories such as Belize and Guyana, that are the principal revenue-generating areas for tourism (agriculture in Guyana’s case).  Lower level islands will be drowned.  The economic impact on the Caribbean would be calamitous if not catastrophic.

REPATRIATION OF OVERSEAS FUNDS:  The Trump administration proposes to introduce a tax repatriation plan that would see repatriation of a substantial portion of the estimated US$2.6 trillion held overseas.  This is very likely to happen, since the incentive will be a special one-off tax holiday, allowing U.S. firms to repatriate funds held overseas with only a 10% payment, versus the current 35% rate.

The effect of this will be to debilitate Caribbean financial institutions that legally hold US assets.  There is bound to be some consequential weakening of the financial sector.

REDUCTION OF CORPORATION TAX:  President Trump has announced that his administration will lower corporation tax to 15%.  When he does this, there will be little need for US Corporations to move overseas.  They will be operating in the richest economy in the world with the lowest tax (a virtual tax haven by OECD criteria)

Here are the likely results: (i) a lower corporate tax rate won’t necessarily reduce corporate tax revenue, particularly as over time there will be more investment and job creation; (ii) a lower corporate tax rate will dramatically – if not completely – eliminate any incentive for American companies to engage in keeping funds overseas; and (c) a lower corporate tax rate will boost workers’ wages by increasing the country’s capital stock and thus improving productivity.

It will become very tough for every other country, including the Caribbean, to woo US investment unless their tax regime for such investment betters 15% (which the Caribbean does now with tax holidays) but the Caribbean would have to work energetically to maximise US investment in unique natural resources – high quality beaches in a Caribbean environment; minerals such as oil and gas and, in the case of Guyana, gold.

OECD AND G20 RULES: Rules of these organisations place strictures on tax competition and demand common reporting standards.  These rules are rigidly applied against Caribbean and other developing countries.   Countries that fail to comply are blacklisted, affecting their capacity to operate in the international economy.

President Trump is clearly putting “America first” in all this, as his country has the power to do.  Caribbean countries will have to carefully consider whether they can follow the advice of Mr. Trump in his inauguration speech – “it is the right of all nations to put their own interests first” – or will a double standard apply in which only powerful countries can set aside rules that do not serve their national interest.   To be fair to President Trump, his administration did not contribute to the existing rules.

DEPORTATION OF UNDOCUMENTED IMMIGRANTS: The new USA administration intends to deport undocumented immigrants to their country of origin.   If there are any undocumented CARICOM nationals, they will suffer that fate.   On January 25, Trump signed executive orders that reinstates the Secure Communities Programme, which Immigrations and Customs Enforcement (ICE), the branch of the U.S.A. government that enforces immigration laws, uses to target undocumented immigrants.  The Order also directs the State Department to withhold visas or take other measures to ensure that countries take back their undocumented immigrants.  It also strips federal grant money from any US city that harbours undocumented immigrants through sanctuary laws.

In this situation, Caribbean countries can expect to have an influx of undocumented immigrants.   The only way they can prevent this is by refusing to take them.   The consequence of that action is that the USA will not grant visas of any kind to the nationals of the refusing countries. There may be other sanctions.

CARICOM countries should consider the immediate establishment of national Committees at a senior level to plan for an influx of undocumented immigrants from the USA.   These immigrants will be of all sorts, but the majority will be unskilled labourers and many will be below the age of 40.   Failure to plan could result in a sudden increase in the population of each country, driving up unemployment and crime, and straining their health facilities; their capacity for delivering water; and the capability of their courts, prisons and police.

Individually and collectively, Caribbean governments have to engage the Trump administration and the USA Congress to discuss these worrying developments that have implications for the region, but also for the USA.

(The writer is Antigua and Barbuda’s Ambassador to the United States and the OAS. He is also a Senior Fellow at the Institute of Commonwealth Studies, University of London and Massey College in the University of Toronto.  The views expressed are his own)

Responses and previous commentaries: www.sirronaldsanders.com

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Comments

  • demerwater  On January 31, 2017 at 6:47 am

    In the same manner that the POTUS has declared “America First”, other nations must search their souls and determine if they would look around for a new leader; or assume the same role for their own destiny- e.g. Guyana First!
    A long time ago, British Guianese used to shout out a “Continental Destiny!” to differentiate ourselves from West Indian Islanders and worse – Small-Islanders!
    Recall, “We got oil; and oil don’t spoil!” “One from ten leaves nought!” Both attributed to Dr. Eric Williams, I think. “Crabs in a barrel” analogy. Sorry, I will not expand on that. Visit La Penitence market one Sunday morning for your own edification.
    All that is behind us now.
    British (Dutch, French then British again) Guiana with its indigenous people and its non-indigenous explorers (trying to be PC here) growing into an independent country of six peoples; has earned its place among the best of all (world’s) countries.
    I believe that the country in which I was born and reared – with its rich history of arts – (E R)Burroughs, (Stephanie) Correia, (Sam) Chase & Jack Mello, (Habib)Khan;
    and science – (Dr. Lyttleton) Ramsahoye, (Steve) Naraine, (Jimmy) Singh –
    is mature enough to hold its own with the best of the rest of the world;
    the USA included.

  • Deen  On January 31, 2017 at 10:04 am

    I agree totally with Demerwater.
    Guyana is acountry blessed with natural resources, especially with gold and the recent discovery of a rich deposit of oil offshore. Guyana is a relatively large country of 83,000 square miles with a small population of less than a million people. With the expected large annual revenues from 2020, when oil exportation is scheduled to start, Guyana potentially stands to become the country with the highest standard of living in South America. That’s a dramatic reversal especially when it was once the poorest country in the Western Hemisphere.
    The government Guyana now have to place great emphasis on controlling crime, bribery and corruption, drugs, citizenship by investment, etc.
    The political parties should be more inclusive and work together for the benefit of the people and country.
    The government needs to focus on creating more jobs, better systems to improve the standard of education, including free university education, improve health services and its infrastructure of roads, drainage and irrigation, water supply and electricity, expand tourism to showcase Guyana, and most importantly, put strict and strong controls in place to maintain a safe and secure Guyana.
    With effective and efficient government administration, Guyana will eventually live up to its historic name “El Dorado,” and emerge as “the city (country) of gold,” especially liquid gold.

  • walter  On January 31, 2017 at 12:15 pm

    Have no choice. Guyana compared to the rest (Caribbean etc) is in the best position to “Guyana First” The country already survived hard times with nothing in it’s basket, with things looking up, might be great, again. Hanging on 100% to the whims the US, EU and the rest, such heartache. BTW the countries with Tax Havens, I am not sure how much this impacts man in the street if they go. Guyana, Put on a big pot of Pepperpot, stock up on the Cassava bread, buy a ticket, go for the ride.

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